pre-debate hypothetical

You’re 50 years old, white, male, Italian-Irish Catholic. Your dad was a union man, a Kennedy Dem. He became a contractor in the 70s, went bankrupt in the 80s, which he blamed on “affirmative friggin action,” and died poor, bitter He blamed your bad school on busing. Blacks moved in and “ruined” your neighborhood but you didn’t have the money to move to the burbs. You adored your father, respected him, how hard he always worked. You do have one friend at the job (still union) who’s black, but generally, you just don’t trust those people. Joe Biden makes you feel good, but you still just don’t think you can do it. What would make you vote for Barack Obama. I’ll be adding comments throughout or after the debate, but that hypothetical, and others not nearly so extreme, interest me, make me worry about that Bradley effect, make me want those swing-state poll margins to be well over 10% before I’m comfy.