Some good news at year’s end: American cars may never again be sucking up gas the way they have for the last 70 years. Government and industry agree on that.
One analyst with Deutschebank predicts that by 2030 our gas consumption will be down to 1969 levels (5.4 million barrels a day).
This year we’re burning 344 million gallons of gas a day, or a little more than a gallon per person. That’s 8.2 million barrels a day, or 8 percent less than in 2006. The four-year decline will not be completely reversed, experts say, even if the economy rebuilds itself.
It’s not that there will be fewer cars on our highways; there will be millions more, the government prognosticates.
But they’ll be using less gasoline.
Starting in 2012, new vehicles must average 30.1 miles per gallon, 2.6 more than the current 27.5. By 2016, they have to get 35.5 mpg. And the big news is that after New Year’s, fuel efficiency requirements will apply to SUVs and many minivans and pickups, whose makers can no longer use the “truck” designation—a loophole that infuriated environmentalists—to claim exemption for them.
Hybrid and electric cars will form a larger part of the traffic stream; their use, too, requires petroleum, but far less.
And the amount of ethanol and other biofuels used to power vehicles will rise—from 14 billion gallons in 2011 to 36 billion gallons in 2022.
There are other parts to the picture. The days of cheap gas are history now; prices are expected to stay high as demand persists in Asia and the Middle East. And fewer Americans seem to be making the long commutes that were common in the ’80s. The number of miles driven per licensed driver leveled off in 2005 (at a figure variously estimated at 12,000 or 15,000 miles annually) after growing for 25 years, partly because more drivers are over 65 now, and older people drive less. Less time behind the wheel, especially in a car with greater fuel efficiency, equates to fewer stops at the pump.
At the Natural Resources Defense Council, where “Move America Beyond Oil” is a rallying cry, elated researchers predict that the decline in gas use will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 400 billion pounds a year by 2020. In that year, the NRDC projects, Americans can expect to be paying $24 billion less for fuel than they pay today.
