Proposed new legislative districts released yesterday could mean significant changes for Springfield—including creating a state Senate seat that a candidate of color would have a strong possibility of winning.
Right now, Springfield is represented in the Senate by two lawmakers, neither of whom live in the city: Jim Welch of West Springfield, and Gale Candaras of Wilbraham. The new plan, drafted by the Joint Committee on Redistricting, would make the district now held by Welch a minority-majority seat, by removing from it parts of Chicopee and the entire town of Agawam (which would become part of district now represented by Sen. Michael Knapik) and adding 18 precincts in Springfield now represented by Candaras, including parts of East Springfield, East Forest Park and Pine Point. Welch already represents the city’s North and South Ends, which have large minority populations. Candaras’ district would maintain some precincts in Springfield while adding parts of Chicopee and Belchertown.
Meanwhile, state Rep. Brian Ashe, who lives in Longmeadow, would lose parts of the Forest Park neighborhood where he grew up, and which he counts as an important part of his electoral base. As Dan Ring notes in today’s Springfield Republican, that move could hurt the Democrat Ashe, who would find himself in a more Republican-heavy district—punishment, perhaps, for Ashe’s bucking House leadership by (admirably) voting against the casino bill?
The proposed new district lines—which still need the approval of the entire Legislature and the governor before they become official—are really just a warm-up act for the big show yet to come: the release of the proposed Congressional district maps, which, thanks to national population shifts, will have to eliminate one of Massachusetts’ 10 seats in the House of Representatives.
Much anxiety has been expressed that that seat will be one of the two in Western Mass., perhaps by pitting long-time incumbent Reps. Richie Neal of Springfield and John Olver of Amherst in a political death match for the sole remaining western seat. Today’s Boston Globe, however, floats another possibility: citing sources who requested anonymity, the Globe reports that lawmakers are considering a plan that would pit Olver against 3rd District Rep. Jim McGovern, who lives in Worcester.
That scenario adds more weight to speculation that the 75-year-old Olver does not plan to run for re-election next year, despite earlier statements to the contrary. If Olver does step down, it would spare the Democratically dominated redistricting committee—which is led by state Sen. Stan Rosenberg, an Olver ally, and long considered his presumed successor as the 1st District’s congressman—the uncomfortable job of forcing two members of its party to fight for political survival. It would also, of course, mean that Neal, the former Springfield mayor, would be spared an ugly intra-party battle in 2012.
