A lot of Democrats have had fun watching the Republican primary season ramp up. The cavalcade of cartoon candidates— Bachmann, Perry, Paul, Gingrich, Santorum, Huntsman and Cain—has been enough to give even the shakiest Democrat partisan confidence in President Obama’s chances for re-election.
Right now, in the midst of Mitt Romney’s rise to the top of the GOP pack, it’s still got to be fun watching the last-ditch efforts of boobs and blowhards like Perry and Gingrich to knock Romney for, of all things, being a successful venture capitalist who wouldn’t let compassion trump business.
For anyone revolted by the unchecked influence of money in politics, it is particularly amusing to watch casino multi-billionaire Sheldon Adelson pissing away millions to help his longtime friend Gingrich paint Romney as one who profits from the misery of others. Of course, the $5 million Adelson funneled to Gingrich even as it became clear that his campaign would never go the distance is, for the eighth richest man in America, about the cost of a condolence card to most of us.
That Gingrich’s attacks on Romney have put Newt on the wrong side of GOP wags like Limbaugh and Hannity makes them all the more entertaining. And while Gingrich will eventually bloviate about how his assault on the presumptive favorite toughened Romney for the general election, the Romney campaign’s warning last week that his GOP rivals were doing Obama’s work for him was probably closer to the truth. The longer voters keep hearing what a bastard Romney was at Bain Capital, gutting companies and sending thousands of workers packing, the more likely it is to stick.
As the New Hampshire primary cycled through the news, the Democrats consolidated their attacks on Romney. My inbox was overrun with predictable spin from the DNC Rapid Response team and other party operatives tearing at Romney’s victory, pushing the same basic message as Gingrich and Perry: Romney likes firing people.
All along, I’ve thought Romney would be hard for another Republican to beat, so I understand why the Democrats would focus attacks on him. But right now, Obama’s media messengers can lurk in the shadows of the GOP primaries, appending their message to ostensible commentary on the battle for the Republican nomination.
When the clutter of the primaries is cleaned up, the president’s opponent will have emerged victorious by remaining calm, cool, disciplined and scrupulously polite. For the Democrats, a Romney candidacy would be a big change of pace, not at all like John McCain’s, not at all like the battles they have waged with House and Senate Republicans since before Obama was even inaugurated.
If Romney secures the nomination, the tone of the election will likely change as two bright and generally unflappable politicians make a play for what they calculate to be the wide center of the American electorate.
Massachusetts voters, of course, have special insight to a Romney candidacy. Voters here have seen the candidate manage a nearly unimpeded rise in politics, stepping from the heights of high finance into a memorable if ultimately unsuccessful 1994 Senate race against the late Ted Kennedy. Romney’s loss to Kennedy wasn’t a speed bump so much as a launching pad, bringing him national attention that he built upon in his high-profile role as the savior of the financially troubled 2002 Winter Olympic Games in Salt Lake City.
Romney’s 2002 gubernatorial victory over Easthampton’s Shannon O’Brien showed he could win by staying on message and smiling a lot. O’Brien, an experienced campaigner, was reduced to a sputtering party hack as Romney absorbed every punch she threw. Romney didn’t seek a second term, instead declaring his presidential candidacy and going on to win 11 Republican primaries in 2008; losing the nomination to McCain was probably a blessing in disguise, given the mood of the country after eight years of President Bush.
Democrats won’t likely underestimate Romney, but neither will they enjoy nearly the same advantages they had against McCain or would have against any of the other Republicans vying for the nomination this time.
Obama’s poise and verbal dexterity may be superior to Romney’s, but only slightly. Though attacked as a Massachusetts moderate by his party’s right wing and recognized as a fair-weather moderate at best by Democrats—his flipflop on abortion is legend—Romney’s fuzzy image has played well in places like Maine and Michigan. When he wants to, he’ll be able to blur the distinctions between himself and his opponent. Romney’s role in Massachusetts health care reform, a hindrance in GOP primaries, becomes an asset against Obama.
In the end, Romney’s sense of discipline makes him a formidable opponent. And while it is true Romney has never faced an opponent as tough as Obama, the converse is also true.
