The baseball playoffs used to be the crown jewel of American sports. Alas, expansion, money and the media have transformed baseball from the national pastime into just another pastry on the TV sports dessert tray. Hardcore baseball devotees now take a backseat to the FWF (Fair Weather Fan) who knows little about the game. Local variants include those who don't know that Lowell is a third baseman as well as a town in eastern Massachusetts. Yet they'll don Red Sox caps, head for a local watering hole and scream like banshees with other FWFs.
Too bad. Maybe we can't work ourselves into Field of Dreams illusions about the current state of baseball, but it remains a thinking person's sport. For those who'd like to follow the game in a more serious way, here are some cues, clues, and predictions for the upcoming playoffs. If nothing else, you can sound knowledgeable even before the beer flows.
First, any of the playoff teams has a shot at the World Series. That sounds obvious, but it wasn't always thus. There are now 31 major league teams; when I was a kid there were just 16. Expansion has brought scads of money to the game, but also a dilution of talent. Before expansion, even horrible teams had Hall of Fame players on their rosters. This meant that World Series opponents were tested juggernauts and the cream of the MLB (Major League Baseball) crop. Now, merely good teams look great because they've feasted on subpar competition.
On paper, the Red Sox and Cubs are the best teams, but rule one is that the best teams don't necessarily get to the World Series, let alone win it. Ask the 2001 Seattle Mariners, who won 116 games but were knocked out of the playoffs by a Yankees squad that won 21 fewer games and promptly lost the Series to a vastly inferior Arizona Diamondbacks squad. (The Yankees also lost the 2003 World Series to the Miami Marlins, a Wild Card entry.) The 2006 St. Louis Cardinals won just 83 games in the regular season, the lowest winning percentage (.516) in MLB history for a team that won the World Series. This year the Los Angeles Dodgers could win, though they would have finished fifth in the American League East. The immortal Casey Stengel said it best: "Most games aren't won; they're lost."
Second, don't buy into all the Red Sox Nation hype; in much of America the Red Sox are as despised as Sox fans think the Yankees are. (They aren't; nearly 26 percent of all MLB merchandising revenue is spent on Yankees gear, with the Sox a poor second at just 8.2 percent.) Folks who hate the Yankees' dough aren't about to get teary-eyed rooting for MLB's second richest franchise. The Sox are also resented because Sox fans, especially the FWFs, have a well-deserved reputation for being the worst winners in MLB—loud-mouthed louts who gloat as badly as Yankees fans whine when New York loses.
If you despise what money has done to the game, toss your Sox hat and root for the Tampa Bay Rays, whose net worth is 30th among MLB teams. Don't get suckered by the Twins, an alleged small-market team whose billionaire owner, Carl Pohlad, is as rich as Croesus and cheaper than a Wal-Mart tie. America's sentimental favorite is the Cubs—merely MLB's sixth richest team. The Cubbies haven't won a World series since 1908, eight years before ivy-covered Wrigley Field opened.
Since anyone can win, let's handicap each team.
(Editor's note: Rob Weir filed his guide to the MLB playoffs just before they began. At press time, two teams had been eliminated—the Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers. Though it is possible that other series will be resolved by the time you read this, we hope the analysis is helpful as you try to impress your friends with your knowledge of the game. At the end of the story, you will find Weir's predictions. Though he's already been proven wrong in at least one instance, we left his picks intact, if only to show that even the experts aren't infallible.)
Boston Red Sox
Why They Can Win: Few teams can match the Red Sox starting pitching. Josh Beckett is a playoff warrior who raises his game in the postseason. He's followed by Jon Lester, arguably the best lefthander in MLB not named Cliff Lee. Then there's Daisuke Matsuzaka (Dice-K), with a gaudy 18-3 record. In the bullpen, Jonathan Papelbon has emerged as a premier closer. The Sox lineup can be fearsome. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia is worthy of Most Valuable Player consideration, though my vote would go to Kevin Youkilis, one of the best pure hitters in the game. And anyone who leaves a fastball over the middle of the plate to David Ortiz will never see that baseball again.
Why They Can Lose: They didn't even win the AL (American League) East. Dice-K's name seldom surfaces for Cy Young consideration because he throws too many pitches, walks too many batters, and has been more lucky than consistent. His starts often get the bullpen involved early and that's not a good thing. The Sox pen is in the hands of unproven youngsters (Justin Masterson and Manny Delcarmen), a washed-up vet (Mike Timlin), and Hideki Okajima, against whom teams hit nearly .400 with runners in scoring position. Tim Wakefield is a warhorse, but knuckleballs don't break as sharply in cold weather.
On offense, Ortiz has a bad wrist and Mike Lowell needs hip surgery. Jason Bay is a fine player, but Ortiz won't get as many juicy fastballs without Manny Ramirez on deck. Opponents should run early and often on the declining Jason Varitek, rookie Jed Lowrie is at short and probably ought to be a third baseman, and centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury isn't stealing bases at will anymore. It remains to be seen if he's the next coming of Lenny Dykstra or Lenny Harris. The rest of the roster is spare parts whose hype is greater than their talent, especially J.D(isabled List). Drew, the Carl Pavano of outfielders.
Los Angeles Angels
Why They Can Win: They had MLB's best record and have been a model of consistency. They also have baseball's best manager in Mike Scioscia. They remind me of mid-'90s Yankees, a blue-collar club with few stars, but the work ethic to make other teams beat themselves. The defense is solid, especially in center with Torii Hunter, and only a person with a death wish runs on the arm of the vastly underrated Vladimir Guerrero. He and Mark Teixeira are awesome in the middle of the lineup and Garret Anderson can still jack it.
Pitching has been their biggest weapon. Joe Saunders, John Lackey and Ervin Santana have been so good that 14-game winner Jon Garland and Jered Weaver are four and five on the depth chart. The Angels also have the deepest bullpen in MLB. Jose Arredondo, Darren Oliver, and Scot Shields set it up and once Francisco Rodriquez enters, the game is over.
Why They Can Lose: Other than Guerrero and Teixeira, this lineup doesn't make pitchers quake. They've also got players who are banged up—Guerrero has the knees of an old man, and second baseman Howie Kendrick has been on the Disabled List (DL). Their starting pitching is solid, but not frightening. There's no true ace on this staff and only Santana is a strikeout pitcher who can keep the ball out of play in a key situation. The X-factor is the ease with which the Angels won the AL West. They've not been pushed all season, so we don't know if the Angels are this good, or if the AL West is even worse than it appears.
Tampa Bay Rays
Why They Can Win: This is a team full of guys you'd like to see do well. Dioner Navarro is an emerging all-star catcher, with a cannon arm, occasional pop in his bat, and a wonderful demeanor with the team's young pitching staff. The Rays also flash the leather. Their outfield is speedy and is anchored by B. J. Upton, who has made himself a decent outfielder. He, more than Ellsbury, is someone you don't want to put on base. Ditto Carl Crawford, if he's healthy. Third baseman Evan Longoria will be the AL Rookie of the Year and plays with the poise of a vet.
The Rays' pitching has been much better than anticipated, with James Shields and Andy Sonnanstine having break-out years. Scott Kazmir can be brilliant and the bullpen has been good, especially J. P. Howell, Grant Balfour, and Chad Bradford.
Why They Can't Win: The Rays are a great feel-good story, but they're probably this year's Colorado Rockies, overachievers whose run is about to end. They're not used to playing in front of big crowds, under pressure, or in the media glare. Manager Joe Maddon has kept the lid on, but a team this young can be volatile. The Rays' lineup is steady, but there's no one you'd pitch around. Their big boppers are Carlos Pena, Eric Hinske, and aging Cliff Floyd—each as likely to strike out as to launch a pitch. Kazmir is a mystery. He ought to be the ace of hearts but he's more like a jack of diamonds. To advance, Kazmir needs to step it up, Shields and Sonnanstine have to be at their best, and number four man Edwin Jackson needs to find himself. In the bullpen you never know what you'll get with Trever Miller or Dan Wheeler, and Troy Percival is the weakest of all playoff closers.
Chicago White Sox or Minnesota Twins
Why They Can Win: At press time the AL Central was undecided, but it doesn't matter much as it would be a huge upset for either of these teams to win. ChiSox catcher A. J. Pierzynski can get under an opponent's skin and make breaks for the club and it's a good defensive team, especially the magnificent Orlando Cabrera at short. The bullpen, though not intimidating, is deep, with D.J. Carrasco, Scott Linebrink, Matt Thornton, Octavio Dotel and Bobby Jenks.
If the Twins' Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer played in the AL East, they'd be anointed future Hall of Famers. Mauer is easily the best catcher in baseball. Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez are young and exciting, and designated hitter Jason Kubel occasionally surprises. Francisco Liriano is a southpaw with devastating stuff and closer Joe Nathan is among the elite.
Why They Can Lose: These are both mediocre teams. The White Sox pitching is deep, but nothing special; after Gavin Floyd, Mark Buerhle and John Danks there's a huge drop off to the maddeningly subpar Javier Vasquez. The White Sox season went south when shoe-in MVP (Most Valuable Player) Carlos Quentin broke his wrist. The only healthy consistent hitter is the underrated Jermaine Dye. Forget Paul Konerko, Ken Griffey, Jr. or Jim Thome, all of whom are over the hill and incapable of producing daily. Wacko manager Ozzie Guillen is a foot-in-mouth machine prone to demotivating humiliation of his players. Only a catastrophic collapse by opponents puts this team in the World Series.
Twins owner Carl Pohlad hasn't spent much on protecting Morneau and Mauer, but the bigger question is, after Liriano, who? Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins are all young and inconsistent. This team is even greener than the Rays. The Twins can only hope their young guys are so cocky they don't panic.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Why They Can Win: They'll have to be like the 2006 Cardinals because the only reason they're in the playoffs is that the NL West is baseball's dregs. What the Dodgers have is Manny Ramirez, the most feared hitter in baseball; Andre Ethier, a star waiting to shine; Russ Martin, a capable backstop; and ex-Indian Casey Blake, a good third baseman who can't wait for the season to end so he can bolt back to Cleveland.
Why They Might Lose: Much will be written about Joe Torre's steadying influence and how the Dodgers made the playoffs but the Yankees didn't. Ignore this nonsense; the Dodgers are a lousy team. Several guys—James Loney and Matt Kemp especially—have been "on the cusp" for so long they're like the movie trailer you see in March that goes straight to video. Nomar used to be great, but injuries have made him a shadow of his past self. No team that starts stiffs like Juan Pierre or Angel Berroa impresses, nor does a starting staff that includes Hiroki Kuroda and Derek Lowe. The Dodgers' ace, Chad Billingsley, would be a number five guy on the Red Sox. The bullpen? A lot of runs can score when you need Scott Proctor to get you to Joe Beimel or Takashi Saito.
The jokers in the deck are Greg Maddux, who had an off year but is the smartest pitcher in baseball, and Manny, the man-child who can be as good as he wants to be. If fate puts him and Nomar in the Series against Boston, even the saints won't preserve Sox pitchers.
Philadelphia Phillies
Why They Can Win: Though several players had off years, this is the best everyday lineup in MLB. It features Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, Pat Burrell and Chase Utley. And they're just the guys around speedster Jimmy Rollins, arguably the best shortstop in baseball, and Ryan Howard, who knocked in 150 runs in an "off" year. Ace Cole Hamels is also starting to live up to his star billing.
Why They Might Lose: Let's be frank—the Phillies are only here because for the second year in a row, the Mets choked like a frat boy at his first kegger. Hitters will need to drive in lots of runs because the pitching is woeful. Once you get past Hamels, only the ageless Jamie Moyer is dependable. Joe Blanton was supposed to be the answer, but his ERA is almost 4.50 in the NL. After him come really bad pitchers: Adam Eaton, Kyle Kendrick, and Brett (Why is he such a bum?) Myers. The closer role is the hot/cold Brad Lidge and the path to him is via unproven talent (Chad Durbin, Ryan Madson) and cast-offs (J. C. Romero, Scott Eyre, Rudy Seanz). It doesn't help that the Phillies' backstops are both second-year guys.
Predictions:
American League: Angels over Red Sox in five games—consistency prevails over flash. The Rays prevail over the Twins in five entertaining games or the White Sox in four boring ones. The Angels win the AL championship in six when the Tampa fantasy bubble bursts.
National League: Cubs over Dodgers in four—not even Manny can make an MLB team out of a minor league roster. (Reality: The Dodgers swept the Cubs in three games.) Phillies over Brewers in four in a high-scoring series. (The Phillies took the series in four games.) The Cubs ought to prevail in six over the Phillies.
World Series: 101 and counting; there will be no joy in Wrigley as the Angels take the Series in six.
A final note: When you've finishing cheering, carousing, and lamenting, don't expect a post mortem at the office. Very little of America east of Denver will actually see the MLB playoffs. Because TV squeezes every dime of advertising revenue it can get from the playoffs, games start late, have long commercial intervals each half inning (or pitching change), and end about the time East Coast TV features Popeil Pocket Fisherman ads. There's a large group of people—known as the employed—who need to go to bed around the bottom of the fourth in order to get up for work the next day."
